How high is the probability of alien civilization? After reading the observation data, you can see

This paper takes part in the series essay competition of “great science” of Recordunkown.

Science and technology has brought great leap to human civilization. It not only improves people’s life, but also enables us to expand our horizons and have more knowledge of the world and the universe.

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Science is a great learning to study and explore the truth behind the world. With the help of science and technology, we can understand the mysteries of matter, life and universe. When we uncover these mysteries, human beings will become more advanced cosmic life, and even hope to become the overlord of the universe and realize the great dream of eternal life.

Science and technology brings us the greatest welfare, that is, let us go out of the earth and see the vast universe. Only when we see the universe through a broad vision, can we understand how small we are, and thus strengthen our future road, that is, the sea of stars.

If we want to explore the universe and set our goal at the sea of stars, we need to first understand a difficult problem that has plagued mankind for half a century, that is, whether there is an alien civilization? According to the initial speculation and calculation of scientists, even if the universe is not full of civilization, it will not be as “dead and silent” as it is now. We can not hear any call or see any shadow of civilization, and the cry of human beings has not received any response.

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This result makes many people feel lonely and afraid. It should be a lively universe, but what human beings see is loneliness. This abnormal situation makes us feel afraid. What is the civilization of the universe? Where did they go?

Some people once thought pessimistically that there might be only one intelligent civilization in the universe. However, with the deepening of our exploration of the universe, this pessimism is basically gone. Most people still believe that alien civilization exists, but it is just a matter of high and low probability. So what is the probability of the existence of alien civilization?

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To understand this problem, we need to use a lot of observation data. After reading these observation data, you will understand. We all know that the earth is an earth like planet, but also a beautiful planet of life.

Although we are not sure in what form extraterrestrial life exists and what kind of planetary environment it needs, we can draw the conclusion that the earth like planets, which are very similar to the earth, will undoubtedly have a higher probability of life and civilization.

Therefore, when scientists search for extraterrestrial life and civilization, they mainly search for earth like planets very similar to the earth. Are there many earth like planets in the universe? On March 6, 2009, NASA launched a space telescope called Kepler.

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Kepler’s main task is to search for earth like planets similar to the earth within a certain range, which is about 3000 light-years. Through hard search, by 2018, the Kepler telescope has found 2325 earth like planets in the universe, and more than 100 of these planets are similar to the earth and located in the habitable zone of their stars, which means that they have a high probability of life.

The existence of life does not necessarily mean that intelligent civilization can evolve, which still needs to meet some conditions. For example, in the habitable zone, only the earth like planets in the habitable zone can have the appropriate temperature and liquid water can exist on the surface.

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Secondly, the size of earth like planets should also be moderate, not too small or too large. If the size is too small, it means that its magnetic field is very weak, unable to bind the atmosphere needed for life evolution. If the planet is too big, it will become a gaseous planet like Jupiter. Although it has a very thick atmosphere, it also produces a very high pressure, which is also not suitable for the continuous evolution of life.

The most ideal earth like planets for scientists are naturally planets with a very close mass and volume to the earth. However, according to the current observation results, most of the planets discovered by human beings are much larger than the earth, and only a very small proportion are similar to the earth. If we use the habitable zone to filter, the remaining planets will only account for less than 10% of the total.

Although this scale looks very small, it’s a terrible number when you zoom in on the cosmic scale. Kepler telescope has found more than 2300 earth like planets within a limited range of 3000 light-years from the earth, and the diameter of the Milky way is at least 100000 light-years. The number of earth like planets is very large.

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According to the data deduction and calculation of current scientists, the number of stars in the Milky way is about 100-400 billion. Every star basically has a stellar system. On average, there is one rocky planet like Earth in the habitable zone of the current star in every six planetary systems.

If we expand the scope to 93 billion light-years of observable universe, the number of rocky planets like earth is too many to be counted. Based on dinosaur data, what’s the probability of the existence of alien civilization? Most scientists believe that the probability of the existence of alien civilization is nearly 100%.

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In fact, the above analysis, we only stand on the earth as a template based on the probability of the existence of alien civilization. However, we should not forget that the requirements of extraterrestrial life on the environment may not be the same as that of earth life. The earth is like a planet and is in the habitable zone, giving birth to intelligent life.

Is there a situation in the universe that is not in the habitable zone and is still a gaseous planet, thus giving birth to life and evolving intelligent civilization? In the past, we thought that the possibility of this kind of situation was basically zero, but with the continuous improvement of human cognition of life, we understand that the tenacity and evolution of life are not as harsh as we think.

Under all kinds of environmental conditions, it is possible to give birth to life, and the evolution of life seems to be an instinct, as long as the planet’s ecological stability, there will not be a huge devastating disaster. As long as the time is long enough, there is hope that life will evolve to an advanced stage, and finally intelligent life will emerge.

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If we add this special evolution, then the probability of the existence of alien civilization will undoubtedly be increased. From this point of view, the future of the human star sea road will not be lonely. Maybe when we go out of the solar system and enter the interstellar space, we will be able to meet other alien civilizations.

The existence of alien civilization has both advantages and disadvantages for human beings. The advantage is that civilizations can communicate with each other. Through communication and learning, we can accelerate the upgrading of human civilization. The disadvantage is that there may be a dark forest law in the universe, and it is difficult to really maintain a state of peace among the various countries on the earth, let alone between the civilizations of the universe. We should know that different intelligent civilizations are totally two civilizations.

If human beings encounter malicious civilization, star wars may break out. If human beings are unable to resist and fail in the end, what is waiting for us may be the end of the whole civilization.

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