If there is an alien civilization invading the earth in the next hundred years, what is the chance of success for mankind?

This paper takes part in the series essay competition of “great science” of Recordunkown.

Hundreds of years ago, after continuous development, human civilization finally entered the road of science and technology. With the help of science and technology, we soon walked out of the earth and began to explore the universe. Among the many mysteries of the universe, the existence of alien civilization has always been a hot topic.

In order to search for extraterrestrial civilization, scientists started the extraterrestrial civilization search program more than half a century ago. We search for possible alien civilizations in the universe through various ways, but up to now, we have not found any alien civilizations.


Does not the discovery of alien civilization mean that they do not exist? Of course not. In fact, with the continuous progress of human science and technology and the continuous improvement of our understanding of the universe, the probability of the existence of alien civilization is higher and higher. Now more than 90% of the people believe in the existence of alien civilization. And astronomers are basically positive about the existence of alien civilization.

Because the more you know about the universe, the more you know, you will know that the probability of alien civilization is basically 100%. Even the existence of human beings itself indicates that there will be other intelligent civilizations in the universe. If alien civilizations do not exist, it means that human beings should not exist either. Since human beings exist, other intelligent civilizations should also exist.

Although up to now, we have not found any alien civilization, but some scientists say that in the next hundred years, human beings have the hope to truly discover alien civilization. The probability of this discovery is that alien civilizations will take the initiative to come to the solar system and the earth. If this is the case, we will have to consider another possible result, that is, alien civilization invading the earth.


I believe many friends have seen a lot of science fiction works, and these science fiction works often have the plot of alien civilization invading the earth. In these accidents, the initial alien civilization is very strong, and human beings are losing. But in the end, human beings find the weakness of alien civilization, and then destroy it.

In the movies of alien civilization invading the earth, the final result is that human beings win. But if this happens in the real world, can human beings still win? A friend once asked this question: if there is an alien civilization invading the earth in the next hundred years, what is the chance of success for mankind?

Once the interstellar war between human and alien civilization breaks out, although the solar system and the earth are the home of human beings, the key to our final victory depends on the strength of science and technology. If the technological strength between the two is similar, then as the home of human, the possibility of winning is very large.


However, if there is too much difference between the two civilizations and they are not in the same level, the possibility of human victory will be very slim. If there is an alien civilization invading the earth now, the probability of human winning is basically zero. We should know that the alien civilization can cross the interstellar to the earth. Even if it comes from the nearest biling galaxy, the scientific and technological strength of this civilization has at least reached the first level. It has mastered the primary sub light speed flight technology, and at least mastered the controllable nuclear fusion.

Because if we want to cross the interstellar space, the speed of the spaceship is not as fast as the speed of sub light. At the speed of our spaceship now, we can’t reach the Bilin galaxy from the solar system in hundreds of thousands of years. It is impossible for any civilization to spend hundreds of thousands of years invading other galaxies. Only when the speed reaches the primary subluminal speed can it have the primary ability of galactic navigation.

With the current technology of human beings, is there any chance of success in the face of alien civilization that has mastered interplanetary navigation and controllable nuclear fusion? The answer is no, because it is very difficult for our weapons to pose any threat to the alien civilization spacecraft, and the alien civilization relies on nuclear fusion technology, at least has mastered the basic energy weapons. This kind of power gap is equivalent to the comparison of the power of modern human beings with that of human beings thousands of years ago. Just imagine how powerful the ancients were, could they beat the power of modern science and technology? The answer is very obvious.


Therefore, if there is an alien civilization invading the earth in the future, whether human beings can win or not depends on the development of our science and technology at that time. How powerful will human civilization be in a hundred years? Let’s take the core energy technology as an example. Energy is the foundation of the development of civilization. If there is no major breakthrough in energy, the level of human civilization will not be improved.

The energy that can make human civilization leap is controllable nuclear fusion. The energy we use now is fossil energy, and its development has basically reached the limit. I believe we all know that once nuclear fusion is realized, human beings will be able to upgrade from level 0.7 to level 1 civilization, that is, the primary interstellar civilization. At that time, we will be able to master the primary sub light speed flight technology and be able to go out of the solar system and explore the nearby interstellar space.

Only by becoming a primary interstellar civilization and facing the possible invasion of alien civilization in the future, can it have a certain primary combat effectiveness. If we can’t become a primary interstellar civilization in the next hundred years, we don’t even have the most basic ability to fight interstellar wars, and we have no chance of winning in the face of an invasion of interstellar civilization.


Maybe many people have seen some science fiction movies about alien civilization invading the earth, in which the plot ends with human victory. However, in the real world, such a thing will not happen unless there is a problem within the alien civilization, and the possibility is basically zero.

Some friends may say that the earth’s bacteria and viruses can eliminate alien civilization, because such a plot has appeared in some science fiction movies. So what happens in the real world? The answer is no, because for a powerful interstellar civilization, when they come to earth, it’s easy to understand the natural composition of the earth.

When the alien civilization understands the earth’s bacteria and viruses, it can easily produce relevant drugs to immunize the earth’s viruses, so it is impossible to rely on bacteria and viruses to eliminate the alien civilization. So it’s who is more powerful in the end. Before human beings have mastered controllable nuclear fusion, the most powerful weapon they can hold is nuclear weapons.


But if our nuclear weapons want to hit the spaceship of alien civilization, they need the boost of rockets. But can such backward attack attack the spaceship of alien civilization? The answer is no, because in the face of energy weapons, our rocket speed is tortoise speed, and we can’t get close to it.

So is the controllable fusion technology expected to be realized in a century? It’s not very likely. As early as 50 years ago, scientists said that human beings can master controllable nuclear fusion in 50 years. But now, 50 years later, we have not made a breakthrough in the research of controllable nuclear fusion.

Now scientists no longer dare to say that human beings have the hope to master controllable nuclear fusion in 50 years. This shows that the realization of this technology is very difficult, and even some scientists believe that controllable nuclear fusion is far from the research and exploration of the existing human science and technology. It takes luck to achieve controlled fusion in a hundred years.


However, if there is no controllable nuclear fusion, many scientific and technological developments of mankind will not be able to make a real breakthrough, especially in space exploration. Without human civilization supported by nuclear fusion, we have no chance of winning any interstellar civilization.

Just like this, Hawking has repeatedly warned that human beings should not easily send civilization signals to the universe, because such signals may be received by powerful alien civilizations. Once the human signal is received by the alien civilization, the earth and human exposure is also a probable event.

At that time, alien civilizations may send fleets to the solar system, and there may be dark forest law in the universe. If the earth is discovered by alien civilizations, the rank of human beings may be the end of civilization. Therefore, before human beings are really strong, we should hide ourselves, rather than take the initiative to expose ourselves.

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